Decision Analysis with Geographically Varying Outcomes: Preference Models and Illustrative Applications

DRMI Working Paper SeriesThe series is intended to convey the preliminary results of [DRMI] ongoing research. The research described in these papers is preliminary and has not completed the usual review process for Institute publications. We welcome feedback from readers and encourage you to convey your comments and criticisms directly to the authors

Developing High Performance Computing Resources for Teaching Cluster and Grid Computing courses

High-Performance Computing (HPC) and the ability to process large amounts of data are of paramount importance for UK business and economy as outlined by Rt Hon David Willetts MP at the HPC and Big Data conference in February 2014. However there is a shortage of skills and available training in HPC to prepare and expand the workforce for the HPC and Big Data research and development. Currently, HPC skills are acquired mainly by students and staff taking part in HPC-related research projects, MSc courses, and at the dedicated training centres such as Edinburgh University’s EPCC. There are few UK universities teaching the HPC, Clusters and Grid Computing courses at the undergraduate level. To address the issue of skills shortages in the HPC it is essential to provide teaching and training as part of both postgraduate and undergraduate courses. The design and development of such courses is challenging since the technologies and software in the fields of large scale distributed systems such as Cluster, Cloud and Grid computing are undergoing continuous change. The students completing the HPC courses should be proficient in these evolving technologies and equipped with practical and theoretical skills for future jobs in this fast developing area. In this paper we present our experience in developing the HPC, Cluster and Grid modules including a review of existing HPC courses offered at the UK universities. The topics covered in the modules are described, as well as the coursework projects based on practical laboratory work. We conclude with an evaluation based on our experience over the last ten years in developing and delivering the HPC modules on the undergraduate courses, with suggestions for future work

Multiple attribute scenarios, bounded probabilities, and threats of nuclear theft

A method is presented for developing descriptions of future scenarios and using expert judgment to assess bounds on the probabilities of these scenarios. Multiple attributes are used to describe the important features of the scenarios, and the scenarios are defined as collections of different possible levels of the attributes. Experts assess either numerical values or bounds on various unconditional and conditional probabilities for different attribute levels. These are used to establish constraints for a series of linear programs which are solved to determine the highest and lowest possible probabilities for each scenario. An application is presented to the assessment of potential threats against nuclear material safeguards systems.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/23794/1/0000032.pd

Patterns of postural deformity in non-ambulant people with cerebral palsy: what is the relationship between the direction of scoliosis, direction of pelvic obliquity, direction of windswept hip deformity and side of hip dislocation?

Objective: To investigate: (a) associations between the direction of scoliosis, direction of pelvic obliquity, direction of windswept deformity and side of hip subluxation/dislocation in non-ambulant people with cerebral palsy; and (b) the lateral distribution of these postural asymmetries

Predominant Asymmetrical Stem Cell Fate Outcome Limits the Rate of Niche Succession in Human Colonic Crypts.

Stem cell (SC) dynamics within the human colorectal crypt SC niche remain poorly understood, with previous studies proposing divergent hypotheses on the predominant mode of SC self-renewal and the rate of SC replacement. Here we use age-related mitochondrial oxidative phosphorylation (OXPHOS) defects to trace clonal lineages within human colorectal crypts across the adult life-course. By resolving the frequency and size distribution of OXPHOS-deficient clones, quantitative analysis shows that, in common with mouse, long-term maintenance of the colonic epithelial crypt relies on stochastic SC loss and replacement mediated by competition for limited niche access. We find that the colonic crypt is maintained by ~5 effective SCs. However, with a SC loss/replacement rate estimated to be slower than once per year, our results indicate that the vast majority of individual SC divisions result in asymmetric fate outcome. These findings provide a quantitative platform to detect and study deviations from human colorectal crypt SC niche homeostasis during the process of colorectal carcinogenesis.Wellcome Trus

Impact of rising sea levels on Australian fur seals

Global warming is leading to many unprecedented changes in the ocean-climate system. Sea levels are rising at an increasing rate and are amplifying the impact of storm surges along coastlines. As variability in the timing and strength of storm surges has been shown to affect pup mortality in the Australian fur seal (Arctocephalus pusillus doriferus), there is a need to identify the potential impacts of increased sea level and storm surges on the breeding areas of this important marine predator in Bass Strait, south-eastern Australia. Using high-resolution aerial photography and topographic data, the present study assessed the impacts of future inundation levels on both current and potential breeding habitats at each colony. Inundation from storm surges, based on a predicted rise in sea level, was modeled at each colony from 2012 to 2100. As sea level increases, progressively less severe storm surge conditions will be required to exceed current inundation levels and, thus, have the potential for greater impacts on pup mortality at Australian fur seal colonies. The results of the present study indicate that by 2100, a 1-in-10 year storm will inundate more habitat on average than a present-day 1-in-100 year storm. The study highlights the site-specific nature of storm surge impacts, and in particular the importance of local colony topography and surrounding bathymetry with small, low-lying colonies impacted the most. An increased severity of storm surges will result in either an increase in pup mortality rates associated with storm surges, or the dispersal of individuals to higher ground and/or new colonies

The MusiQual treatment manual for music therapy in a palliative care inpatient setting

This article presents the treatment manual developed during the MusiQual feasibility study carried out in Belfast by Queen’s University Belfast, Every Day Harmony Music Therapy, and Marie Curie Northern Ireland. The MusiQual study considered the feasibility of a multicentre randomised trial to evaluate the effectiveness of music therapy in improving the quality of life of hospice inpatients (protocol: McConnell et al. results: Porter et al.). The procedures in the manual are based fully on those implemented by the Music Therapists during the feasibility study, and it also incorporates the theoretical model defined and published following the realist review of the literature (McConnell and Porter). The manual is presented in the format in which it would be used in the potential future phase III multicentre randomised control trial. It represents a flexible approach to provide enough scope for practicing therapists to adapt their interventions to individual clients as is best practice in music therapy. It aims to provide stable guidelines both to ensure treatment fidelity in a future trial of music therapy for palliative care inpatients and to act as a relevant guide for Music Therapists practicing in this field